UZBEKISTAN

Since the end of 2016, Uzbekistan has been pursuing a course of liberalisation and opening. Comprehensive five-year development strategies are being implemented, including reform plans for security policy and foreign policy. Uzbekistan pursues a multilateral and proactive foreign policy. 

The country’s new development strategy envisages closer cooperation and good relations with its neighbours, including cross-border projects designed to expand this cooperation. The aim is to create a belt of security, stability and good neighbourly relations all around the country. Provisions in Uzbekistan’s current defence doctrine from 2019 renounce the production and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction as well as membership in military-political organisations, and preclude the stationing of foreign military bases on its territory. 

Uzbekistan views active participation in international cooperation as well as integration into European, Asian and other international institutions as important goals of its foreign policy. The country is a member of more than 100 different international organisations and is a party to over 200 multilateral treaties. Among them are the OSCE, the Non-Aligned Movement and Interpol. 

Uzbekistan also attaches great importance to cooperation formats with the WHO, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. The country’s involvement in multilateral forums could be further boosted, for example, by the cooperation agreement with the EU, which has yet to be signed. This would significantly improve trade conditions and consequently contribute to the liberalisation of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade regime. Uzbekistan has participated in NATO’s Partnership for Peace programme since 1994. The Uzbek government considers NATO an important partner in countering current security threats, advocates cooperation with NATO, and wants to expand military-technical cooperation with foreign partners. 

The greatest threat to national and, by extension, regional security is currently posed by religious extremism and terrorism entering the country from Afghanistan and other neighbouring states. Radical Islamic groups within Uzbekistan that question the secular model of society and thus stability and social peace are also a security risk for the country. To date, Uzbekistan has managed to contain Islamist pressure. Since the country wields considerable influence in Central Asia and moreover shares borders with all states in the region, destabilisation in Uzbekistan would affect the entire region. Instability in Central Asia would in turn pose major challenges for Germany and the EU.

Uzbekistan is the most important player in Central Asia when it comes to both economic and security considerations. Regional stability in Central Asia would be simply inconceivable without its involvement. Due to the country’s importance from an economic and political standpoint and in terms of transport logistics, the establishment of a mutually beneficial strategic partnership with Uzbekistan promises to have a positive impact on the entire region. One of the aims of neighbourly cooperation, including in the context of cross-border projects, is to achieve greater unity on foreign policy issues among the states of Central Asia. A united and stable Central Asia will allow the EU and Germany to confidently partner with the region in many areas, including the consolidation of international security and stability. Both bilateral platforms and multilateral dialogue formats such as “EU-Uzbekistan” can contribute to this goal. In his inaugural speech in November 2021, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev stressed that Uzbekistan will strive to increase cooperation with Germany and to benefit from Germany’s experience in numerous areas, from the agricultural sector to the automotive industry.

Uzbekistan played a key role in the international community’s evacuation efforts when NATO troops withdrew from Afghanistan in August 2021. A domestic terminal at Tashkent Airport was made available to Germany for the evacuation of nationals and persons seeking protection. This significantly raised Uzbekistan’s profile in the world as a reliable partner. 

Germany is currently funding the project “Preventing Violent Extremism in Central Asia” through the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). Another German initiative is dedicated to addressing the consequences of climate change for regional security in Central Asia. The focus is on stronger regional cooperation among the five Central Asian states and Afghanistan.

Great potential exists in regard to both the country itself and regional interaction. Intergovernmental talks between Uzbekistan and Germany take place on a regular basis, most recently in May 2021. The priorities of German-Uzbek development cooperation include healthcare, vocational training, the promotion of entrepreneurship, digitalisation, the expansion of export potential, the development of the Aral Sea region, the fight against corruption and the observance of human rights. Uzbekistan is working on fundamental reforms in the latter area and has adopted a National Strategy for Human Rights. For the first time in its history, the country was elected to the UN Human Rights Council for the term 2021 to 2023. 

Uzbekistan is aware that it faces an important geopolitical decision. On the one hand, there are plans for in-depth social and state reform as well as closer relations with the West, but on the other, Russia continues to be regarded as the country’s chief trading partner. The latest wave of economic sanctions against Russia therefore has far-reaching consequences for Uzbekistan as well. The situation of the numerous migrant workers in Russia is deteriorating day by day, and remittances are strongly affected by the depreciation of the ruble. Nevertheless, Uzbekistan continues to rely on trade with Russia. It is also becoming apparent that Moscow, in its search for ways to circumvent the sanctions and save its economy from collapse, will be investing more in Central Asia, which could prove to be a boon for Uzbekistan. The country will not let this opportunity go to waste. Against this backdrop, Uzbekistan, which aspires to a multilateral and neutral foreign policy, will neither turn away from Russia nor abandon its burgeoning partnership with the Western world. China is equally important as Uzbekistan’s second largest trading partner after Russia. Within its Belt and Road Initiative and a series of telecommunications and infrastructure projects, Beijing is pushing forward with its strategy of penetrating the Central Asian region and creating relationships of dependency.

Uzbekistan is fundamentally committed to democratic, constitutional and secular principles, and advocates the strengthening of human rights and individual freedoms. Efforts at greater integration among the countries of Central Asia have failed thus far for various reasons. The security situation in the region – made volatile by the change of power in Afghanistan, the unrest in neighbouring Kazakhstan in January 2022, and the armed conflict on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border – is liable to be taken advantage of by other interested stakeholders in order to expand their influence in the region. Uzbekistan is undoubtedly an important security partner in Central Asia. In view of the domestic tensions and conflicts over the past years, Uzbekistan’s role as an anchor of stability should be strengthened and its reform projects supported. Russia and China, both with multiple economic activities in all Central Asian countries, are concerned solely with economic dominance. Germany, by contrast, could work to strengthen its developmental support in Uzbekistan and also seek proactive participation in transport, logistics and energy projects that the country wishes to implement in Afghanistan. As a counterweight to the ever-growing Russian and Chinese influence, Germany, the economically strongest member state of the EU, can contribute both to the development of each individual country and to regional cooperation in Central Asia as a whole through country-specific and also cross-border economic, political and infrastructural projects. Only a more active security and development policy commitment on Germany’s part can in the long term counteract the risk of failure of existing cooperation formats and thus bolster German-Uzbek relations. 

Ronny Dirk Heine heads the KAS regional programme for Central Asia, based in Tashkent/Uzbekistan.