SERBIA

Serbia is of central importance for Germany in terms of regulating global migration flows. Since the beginning of the refugee crisis in 2014, a large proportion of refugees from the Middle East, Central, and South Asia have moved along the so-called “Balkan route”. The main route leads from Turkey and Greece via Bulgaria, North Macedonia, and Serbia to Hungary and Croatia, which form the border of the EU. Continuing from there is difficult because especially the Hungarian government has implemented very tough border controls to prevent entry without valid travel documents. In the first two years of the migration movement, Serbia received emphatic international praise for its humanitarian aid to refugees. 

Despite the drop in numbers compared to the peak year of 2015, Serbia remains one of the most important transit countries on the Balkan route due to its location and ease of passage. In 2020, 1,600 illegal border crossings and 144 asylum applications were registered on the Serbian side according to Frontex data (2019: 17,642 illegal border crossings and 173 asylum applications). The alternative routes via Albania (2020: 1,429 illegal border crossings and 2,100 asylum applications – according to Frontex and UNHCR) and Bosnia-Herzegovina (2020: 12 illegal border crossings and 244 asylum applications) are much more difficult to navigate than the conventional route from Vranje or Pirot to the border camp at Šid, mainly due to geographical obstacles and poor infrastructure. There is also an established aid structure in Serbia, which the two above-mentioned countries lack. According to Frontex data, 18.604 illegal attempts to cross the border were registered between January and June 2021, mainly by migrants from Syria, Afghanistan, Morocco and Libya.

The war in Ukraine has changed the migration flows in Europe substantially. By 8th May 2022, according to the UNHCR, 5 890 875 Ukrainian refugees had fled the countryhttps://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine. Poland has received the greatest influx of Ukrainian refugees by far, 3 217 206, though some have moved on to other EU countries. For Ukrainian refugees Serbia is neither an attractive nor apriority destination, since Ukraine borders multiple EU states, with Poland taking in around a half and Romania around a fifth of the total refugee inflows from Ukraine. In comparison, by 21st March, Serbia’s Commissariat for Refugees and Migrations had registered 13 000 bordercrossings by Ukrainian nationals, around 3000 of whom registered to stay in Serbiahttps://www.slobodnaevropa.org/a/srbija-izbeglice-ukrajina/31763402.html. According to the Red Cross of Serbia,  30 000 Ukrainians had crossed the territory of Serbia by early May with some 5500-6000 deciding to stay in Serbiahttps://insajder.net/prenosimo/crveni-krst-srbije-na-namenski-racun-pomoci-gradjanima-ukrajine-uplaceno-2-8-miliona-dinara. The vast majority of them are housed in private dwellings, with their relatives. This shows that Serbia is neither a primary destination nor a priority route for Ukrainian refugees and that the country will not be impacted drastically by refugee flows from Ukraine. However, a crisis in the Middle East or Africa could trigger more refugee inflows via the Balkan route.

Serbia is interested in working with the EU countries to further improve the capacity to control and distribute refugees. There is a great deal of empathy, among the Serbian population, for people who are escaping civil war in Syria and Iraq, which is partly due to their collective memory of the expulsion and flight of 120,000 Serbs from Croatia during the civil war in Yugoslavia. In view of Serbia’s socioeconomic situation, it is not in the country’s interest to have migrants stay permanently in the country. Since the cooperation between the German government and Belgrade has been based on mutual trust (especially during 2014 and 2015), Serbia is prepared to continue cooperating on this issue.

There is very close cooperation between Germany and Serbia on the refugee question, and the ministries of the interior of both countries regularly exchange information. German Federal Police units support the Serbian border forces in controlling entry and exit. Germany has also provided extensive humanitarian aid. The visa waiver granted to travelers from Iran was revoked by Serbia.

There is potential for strengthening the partnership between Germany and Serbia, particularly on border security, for example, by improving the technical equipment and work practices of the Serbian police and customs. This would make migratory movements more manageable and enhance the quality of the fight against organised transnational crime which benefits from Serbia’s geographical location, because, apart from the migration route, the main heroin trafficking routes from Central Asia also pass through Serbia.

Serbia hopes that it will receive additional support for the distribution of migrants who are accommodated in the country because its battered social security systems will not be able to provide care for these people in the long term. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that refugees who are accommodated in temporary shelters want to leave Serbia as soon as possible, because the country cannot offer them stable prospects.

German foreign policy needs to dedicate itself more to the issue of migration flows in Serbia. Although the migration issue no longer receives as much media attention as in 2015, the number of illegal border crossings in the Western Balkans has gone up by 47 percent compared to 2020, according to Frontex data. In 2021, according to Frontex, 60 000 out of the 200 000 illegal border-crossings came via the Balkan route. This is a 125 percent increase compared to 2020, more than the 85% increase on the Central Mediterranean routehttps://frontex.europa.eu/media-centre/news/news-release/eu-external-borders-in-2021-arrivals-above-pre-pandemic-levels-CxVMNN. These numbers predate the War in Ukraine, which will not affect the Balkan route and Serbia substantially, particularly when compared to the Eastern Land Border. Belgrade is looking particularly towards the EU on this issue, because the EU is perceived as the real pull factor, driving this migration movement. 

Apart from a normative framework, adapting the Serbian asylum and immigration policy to EU standards requires developing capacities for a lasting integration of those migrants who have stated their wish to stay in the country. Successful integration of migrants into the countries of the Western Balkans is directly linked to the possible involvement of the region in developing a joint strategy with the EU member states as well as credible prospects of membership in the family of European nations.

Technical, personnel, and financial support are also in Serbia and Germany’s joint interests. The migration of skilled workers is viewed with particular sensitivity by Serbia, and the government has issued official statements on the German policy of labour poaching. An intensive dialogue on skilling programs involving the respective chambers of commerce can reduce these tensions and produce a win-win situation for the two countries.

Norbert Beckmann-Dierkesheads the KAS Office in Serbia / Montenegro.

Last update: May 5th, 2022

4: https://frontex.europa.eu/media-centre/news/news-release/eu-external-borders-in-2021-arrivals-above-pre-pandemic-levels-CxVMNN