PAKISTAN

Pakistan is a country of origin, a destination, and a transit country for those fleeing or migrating. In its region, Pakistan is one of the largest countries of origin for migrant workers, the great majority of whom (96 percent) are concentrated in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

At the same time, for some decades Pakistan has been one of the main countries taking in refugees and migrants from Afghanistan. Together with Iran, Pakistan has accommodated 90 percent of all Afghan refugees during this time. Almost two million Afghans are in Pakistan legally, plus an estimated total of almost one million more without valid papers.

Pakistan, Iran and Turkey are the main transit countries for refugees and migrants from Afghanistan. During the civil war in Afghanistan in the 1990s, Pakistan and Iran were the main destination countries for Afghan refugees. Now Europe, mainly Germany, is one of the places of asylum.

After the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in August 2021, Pakistan served as a main hub for Afghan refugees seeking asylum in Germany and other parts of Europe. Most local staff in Afghanistan with right of entry to Germany were evacuated via Pakistan, and this is still taking place in isolated cases.

Unlike previous movements of people fleeing Afghanistan in the 1990s, Pakistan made it clear early in the most recent Afghan crisis that it was reluctant to take in further Afghan migrants, and that only an orderly transit by refugees with valid papers and promises of acceptance by third countries would be permitted. Pakistan has increasingly secured its almost 2,500 km-long border with Afghanistan with fences, which has also led to conflicts with the new, de facto Taliban government in Kabul. A further massive refugee movement to Europe, as happened in 2015, has been prevented so far thanks to much improved border security on the part of Pakistan, and also by two of Afghanistan’s other neighbours, Iran and Uzbekistan.

Pakistan and other neighbours, Iran, China and the central Asian republics, have given a clear signal that they are not prepared to take in refugees. In previous years, Pakistan had already sent about two million Afghan migrants and refugees back to Afghanistan. At the same time, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and, to a lesser extent, Iran have largely supported the evacuation efforts by Germany and other western nations since August 2021. 

Pakistan does not have a history of using flows of migrants as a means of putting pressure on Germany or other parts of Europe. Germany and Pakistan therefore have a common interest in regulating the movement of migrants and countering illegal migration.

The evacuation of local Afghan staff, activists and employees of international entities from Afghanistan beginning in August 2021 was the most significant cooperation in migrant regulation in the history of German-Pakistani relations. 

Most local Afghan staff with right of entry to Germany were evacuated via Pakistan, and this is still happening in isolated cases. Most were taken out of the country via land routes at the Afghan border posts of Torkham and Spin Boldak. Pakistan also supported the evacuation of more than 7,000 foreign nationals from diplomatic and international entities in Afghanistan during the first phase of the evacuation.

Until the Taliban took power in Kabul in 2021, the Afghan government was a close partner to Germany in the area of migration policy. Following the loss of Afghanistan as a partner country, Pakistan was able to step up as a new partner for migration policy in south-western Asia.

The point of intersection between German and Pakistani interests lies in regulating migration flows and in combatting the causes of the refugee situation. In regulating flows of migrants, both sides have an interest in suppressing illegal human trafficking activities and the freedom of movement of members of terrorist groups such as al-Qaida, the IS branch organisation ISKP and the Pakistani Taliban splinter group TTP. And when it comes to combatting the root causes of refugee movements, Germany and Pakistan have, in principle, a shared interest in achieving a stable, peaceful solution in Afghanistan. The Pakistani government has repeatedly tried to encourage the Taliban leadership to act constructively in this area. 

As for efforts to implement further stabilising measures in Afghanistan, however, there are a number of potential approaches. Pakistan has a major interest in diplomatic recognition for the new Taliban government in Kabul, partly in order to prevent a collapse of Afghanistan’s economy and resume interrupted bilateral trade. Protection of women’s rights and human rights in general in Afghanistan is important to Pakistan only insofar as that would prevent further migration from Afghanistan, and Pakistan itself does not also come under international pressure for its close relationship with the Taliban government. In contrast, Germany and its western partners are focusing – in addition to unconditional humanitarian aid – on conditional support for Afghanistan aimed principally at benefiting Afghanistan’s civilian population. 

In principle, Pakistan is open to closer and improved relations with Germany, as long as it can perceive a benefit for itself in the process. If Germany wants to gain greater cooperation from Pakistan as a partner in its migration policy, there is a possibility that the Pakistani government, which is in debt to the International Monetary Fund, will demand financial considerations in return.

In the past, relations between Europe and Pakistan were substantially shaped by the UK. Germany and the EU lack the relationship and strategic knowledge that have developed over decades regarding this region, which is perceived as an “Anglo-American domain”. Germany will therefore hardly achieve the depth of the strategic relationships, knowledge and contacts in Pakistan enjoyed by the UK or the US. At the same time, however, Germany is not handicapped by a colonial history in the way the UK is, nor does it have a difficult and ambivalent relationship with Pakistan like that of the US.

For a far-sighted migration policy, it could be practical for Germany and the EU to diversify their international partnerships in the area of migration policy and focus more strongly on Pakistan which, along with Iran and Turkey, will remain an important transit country for refugee movements from Afghanistan to Germany and the wider EU. 

German and Pakistani interests in foreign and security policy do not fully overlap, and they also contain potential for conflict – in dealing with Islamist groups, for example, in the question of recognition for the Taliban government in Kabul, or with regard to the foreign-policy balancing act performed by Pakistan in its strategic relationships with China and the US, and its intensified relations with Russia. As for migration policy, however, there are many points of intersection. Pragmatic cooperation in areas of common interest such as regulating migration would be advisable.

More in-depth bilateral cooperation will prove particularly successful in areas where Pakistan can identify clear financial and security-policy benefits for its own national interests. Germany would therefore also be well advised to clearly define and communicate its own national interests.

Dr Ellinor Zeino is Head of the KAS Regional Programme South West Asia.