NIGERIA

With a population of around 216 million, Nigeria is not only the most populous country in Africa, but it has also been the continent’s largest economy for some years now. The country is rich in oil and gas and is one of the largest oil exporters in the world. Nonetheless, Nigeria faces immense security and economic problems, which have worsened as a result of the Covid pandemic and could further destabilise the entire region in the medium to long term, posing major challenges for Europe. This applies both to the European interest in supporting the Sahel states in their fight against terrorism and to stopping irregular migration from Africa.

Rather than being an advantage, Nigeria’s size is a disadvantage in this context. Around 50 percent of the population or around 100 million people already live in extreme poverty. The main reason for this is the country’s rapid population growth which has been going on for decades, whereas economic growth has been slow.

According to the UN, more than 400 million people will live in Nigeria by 2050. This would make Nigeria’s population the third largest in the world after India‘s and China’s. In order to offer viable economic prospects to the many young people, the country’s economy would already require double-digit growth today. Until the start of the Covid pandemic, however, the country had only recovered slowly from the economic recessions of 2014 and 2015 and slipped into another recession when the pandemic hit. Again, the country is having a hard time to recover. Unemployment is high, mainly among the young and there is a widespread sense that there are no positive prospects for the future. 

Moreover, the security situation has steadily deteriorated for a decade. The fight against the Islamists of Boko Haram and the splinter faction Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the northeast of the country, and across the border in Niger and Chad, is tying up important resources that these countries need elsewhere. Also, central Nigeria has suffered for years from a bitter struggle for land use between predominantly Christian farmers on the one hand and Muslim Fulani herdsmen on the other. The northwest has been destabilised by marauding groups of bandits and heavily armed militias as well as separatist ambitions in the so-called Biafra region keep threatening to destabilize the south. These worsening problems are accompanied by an increasing failure of the state and its chronically underfinanced and understaffed security institutions to restore domestic order. In many cases, this is due to the widespread corruption at all levels of the state, which deprives the country of billions of US dollars a year.

Under these circumstances, there is a threat that humanitarian crises could develop in the medium to long term, which could result in major refugee and migration movements to neighbouring countries and to Europe. This would not only further destabilise the neighbouring states that are already overwhelmed but would also cause major problems for Europe as far as managing the migration flows from Africa is concerned. Stabilising the country, on the other hand, would have a positive effect on the entire region – not least because Nigeria is also the largest and most influential member state of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). This could, therefore, also have a positive effect on the regional economic community.

In principle, Nigeria is prepared to work with Germany to achieve the goal of stabilising the country and the West African region. This willingness is illustrated, for example, by the German-Nigerian Binational Commission, which was founded at foreign ministerial level in 2011 and is scheduled to meet every two years in cross-departmental working groups to discuss economic and energy issues, politics, culture, education and migration. The Commission was mandated to improve the coordination of development cooperation. Together with Germany and Norway, Nigeria also organised the Lake Chad Conferences in Oslo (2017) and Berlin (2018), which raised billions in aid for the region which is affected by a serious humanitarian crisis. In light of the war in Ukraine and Germany’s efforts to become independent of Russian oil and gas, there is a heightened interest on both sides in deepening economic relations.

Generally speaking, there is close cooperation between Germany and Nigeria on the ground. In Nigeria, the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ) operates one of the largest international offices and boasts one of the biggest project budgets worldwide. In addition, the GIZ implements a number of projects on behalf of the EU and private donors that are designed to make a contribution to the country’s development. Also, the Foreign Office (AA) does not only fund the GIZ for implementing a police reform project but also provides funding to other German intermediaries and UN organisations to support their efforts to strengthen the country’s security agencies. Three major German political foundations – the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation, the Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation and the Heinrich-Böll Foundation – have offices in Nigeria. In working to promote the democratic development, rule of law and respect for human rights, the three foundations use a division of labor. In order to achieve their objectives, the foundations cooperate closely with partners in government and in civil society. 

What’s more, the German Federal Armed Forces have not only deployed a group of advisors to Nigeria, providing German equipment assistance on the ground, but Nigeria is also a priority country for the “Enable & Enhance Initiative” (Ertüchtigungsinitiative). German support includes providing the Nigerian armed forces with equipment and training to help them in the fight against terrorism.

Considering the immense problems, but also the importance of the country for the stabilisation of the region, the potential for a partnership has not been exhausted yet. Equipment assistance, training of security forces, measures for supporting security sector reform, and bilateral cooperation between security agencies could be significantly expanded. This would make crucial contributions to the fight against terrorism and organised crime possible. Furthermore, there is huge potential for better coordination between European partners in order to boost the effectiveness of those activities that are supposed to improve the situation in Nigeria.

In order to improve the coordination of cooperation in Nigeria, the Binational Commission should meet annually instead of only every two years. A security and stability working group should be added to the commission. This would enable better alignment of the various programmes and diverse activities of German and international players in this field. At the same time, these programmes and activities, supported by the Nigerian partners, could be better adapted to the country’s needs.

Germany should also make its development cooperation conditional on the achievement of progress in Nigeria. In 2020, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) took a first step in this direction by adopting its reform concept “BMZ 2030“. Nigeria is one of 28 bilateral partner countries with which the Federal Republic of Germany pursues “long-term joint development goals“. The two biggest obstacles to development in the country – population growth and corruption – should, however, be given greater attention in development cooperation projects. In this context, activities for strengthening democracy and the rule of law would also have to be intensified. This could make an important contribution to improving the policy framework, which would benefit the country’s overall development.

In addition to German organisations, a number of European players are also engaged in development cooperation. Therefore, a better coordination of activities at the European level would be a logical step. In Nigeria itself, the EU delegation could manage coordination efforts. This would create more synergy among the various activities and programmes and they could be designed more strategically.

Vladimir Kreck heads the KAS office in Nigeria.

Last update: May 21, 2022