JORDAN

Jordan has been considered an anchor of stability at least since the Arab Spring, which shook many countries in the region to their foundations. Maintaining this stability is of paramount interest to German foreign policy.

First, because stability in Jordan is indispensable for Israel’s security. At 240 kilometres, Israel shares its longest land border with Jordan. Security cooperation between the two countries prevents violent groups from hiding out east of the River Jordan and using the area as a base for attacking Israeli targets. Moreover, the special role played by Jordan’s Hashemite royal family in Jerusalem, where it acts as patron of the holy Islamic sites, makes the country a prime player if any progress is to be achieved in the Middle East conflict.  

Second, Jordan serves as a buffer zone against Syria and Iraq. After years of civil war, the two former core states of the Levant have become potential exporters of instability, emphatically demonstrated by the rise of the terrorist organisation Islamic State (IS). Most recently, the production and smuggling of drugs out of Syria, the money from whose sale is used for example to fund militias that are in some cases closely allied with Iran, has become a veritable security problem. So far, the Arab Gulf States have been the main market for the smugglers, but there is a risk of drug exports spreading to Europe as well. All the more reason to focus on securing Syria’s southern border. In addition, Jordan remains an important location for combatting terrorist and criminal groups operating out of Syria and Iraq. 

Third, Jordan has for decades been hosting refugees from neighbouring states. Palestinians who fled their homeland in 1948 and 1967, along with their subsequent descendants, now make up at least half of Jordan’s population. And since the beginning of the civil war in Syria, Jordan has taken in more than one million of those fleeing. Given the disastrous state of the Syrian economy today, it is unlikely that they will return any time soon. If Jordan were to become destabilised, this would trigger new waves of refugees heading for Europe.

Fourth, despite its dependence on international financial support, Jordan continues to play a key insider role in Middle Eastern diplomacy. The country has traditionally been closely allied with the West, but it also finds acceptance as a valued voice in the dialogue with regional stakeholders. Jordan can hence play the role of moderator in the current reorganisation of the geopolitical order in the Near and Middle East, contributing in this way to the security architecture that is also Germany’s best strategy for ensuring lasting stabilisation of the region.

Germany has intensified its relations with Jordan over the past decade. It is in the meantime the country’s second-largest bilateral donor (after the US), currently providing some €500 million in annual development aid (including loans). Long-time German Chancellor Angela Merkel and King Abdullah, who has ruled since 1999, maintained a particularly close friendship. In early 2022, the foreign and defence ministers of the new German government visited Jordan, sending a signal of continuity with respect to the two countries’ close bilateral relations. 

In 2016, Jordan was added to the list of countries benefitting from Germany’s Enable and Enhance Initiative, designed to strengthen security policy in friendly nations. Germany’s commitment to Jordan is primarily in the area of border security in the northeastern part of the country, while it also promotes Israeli-Jordanian cooperation. Since October 2017, German soldiers have been stationed at the Al-Azraq airbase (currently around 150 troops), from where the Bundeswehr is participating in the mission against IS in Iraq (and in Syria until 2020).

In terms of foreign policy, Germany and Jordan, together with France and Egypt, joined forces at the beginning of 2020 to form an informal coordination round often called the Munich Group. The aim is for the group to advocate for international parameters in the Middle East peace process, as opposed to the unilateral measures taken by the US and Israeli governments in the Trump/Netanyahu era, many of which are contrary to international law. The foreign ministers of the four countries last met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February 2022.

Although the United States has traditionally been Jordan’s most important partner and will remain so for the foreseeable future, the country has shown great willingness to cooperate with Germany, including in the area of security policy. This was demonstrated impressively when Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht was received not only by the Prime Minister but also by the King on her inaugural visit to Amman. Due to the kingdom’s structural budget deficit, the Jordanian armed forces are dependent on support from abroad – accordingly, they have a long wish list when it comes to military material required from partners including Germany. 

Germany basically enjoys a good reputation in Jordan, and German development cooperation is appreciated at least in informed circles as making an important contribution in key strategic areas such as the water sector. Nevertheless, large segments of Jordanian society perceive Germany’s stance in the Middle East conflict as unilaterally pro-Israeli, especially in phases of escalation such as the recent Gaza War in May 2021. Islamist and nationalist milieus in particular have on occasion agitated against alleged Western interference in internal affairs and against the country’s geopolitical orientation. Foreign and security policy is still dictated by the King, but he cannot afford to ignore popular sentiments.

Germany has greatly increased its support for Jordan over the past decade, offering substantial assistance in coping with the Syrian refugee crisis, among other things. If this aid is to have a lasting impact as a longer-term contribution to the stabilisation of Jordan and thus to the Middle East as a whole, it must be provided within a political framework that also includes a vision for the country’s future development. 

Germany could easily involve Jordan even more intensively in Middle East diplomacy. On the one hand, Berlin can take advantage here of Amman’s role as a regional mediator and its ability to engage in dialogue. On the other, it must be clear that the unresolved trouble spots in the area, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Syrian crisis, can at any time spill over into Jordan and threaten its stability.

In the defence and security sector, Germany should continue to act in concert with other Western partners. Beyond any bilateral cooperation, Jordan should continue to be strengthened as a partner for NATO, with support for the modernisation of the Jordanian army. Key areas here are bolstering defences against cyberattacks and with regard to agents of biological and nuclear warfare with which non-state actors in particular could threaten Jordan – and Western targets in Jordan. 

German Middle East policy can also support Jordan’s own efforts at regional cooperation, for example through targeted promotion of cross-border infrastructure projects. A promising starting point is the recently launched cooperation between Amman, Baghdad and Cairo under the slogan “The New Levant”. With its prime geopolitical location, Jordan can also play a role in the expansion of energy infrastructure in the region and the development of new energy sources for Europe such as green hydrogen, which Germany can promote in a targeted fashion. 

Furthermore, efforts must be stepped up to make progress in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, always while seeking dialogue with Jordan. The continued Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories remains a potential factor for destabilisation of the Hashemite Kingdom, as it foments the mobilisation of population groups against the Jordanian government and the royal family, among other reactions.

In principle, Germany should maintain its high level of development cooperation in the near future, but in the medium term it should ensure more Jordanian ownership of projects. Structural problems in the country’s governance, administration and economic model, such as corruption and clientelism, must also be addressed openly, and Germany must, wherever possible, make its aid contingent on improvements in these areas. Only if Jordan achieves the goals it has set for itself in the areas of political reform and the protection of human rights can the country be a privileged partner for German foreign policy and in the long term a bulwark of stability in the Near and Middle East. 

Dr. Edmund Ratka heads the KAS office in Jordan.